Broad risk-off session: BTC 78,380 (−1.3%), ETH 2,473 (−0.7%), SOL 102.7 (−2.1%), HYPE −5.4% — majors printing DOWN 4H structure and sitting near their lows.
BNB is the lone green major (+1.0%), holding an intact 4H uptrend and a fresh resistance breakout — relative strength worth buying on a pullback.
Funding neutral across the board (~+0.01%/8h; SOL −0.001%); no tier-1 events in the window (XRP CLARITY vote is Sept 15, out of range). altFINS daily ratings still read "Strong Up" on BTC/ETH but that lags the live 4H down-move — no fresh longs there.
Equity $2,232.79 · risk budget $28/trade · no unresolved calls carried in.
🔺 LONG BNB — breakout-retest
Entry zone:744–747 (limit; only fills on a pullback into the broken level — do not chase 752)
Why: BNB is the only major up on the day (live 752.3, +1.0%) with a Strong Uptrend across all timeframes and a confirmed 4H break above the 744 shelf. The trigger is a retest: price pulling back into 744–747 (prior resistance now support, aligned with the 739–742 higher-low cluster) and holding, resuming toward the 760 swing high. Funding neutral — supports no crowding.
Invalidation: a 4H close below 737 breaks the higher-low sequence and negates the breakout — stand aside.
🔻 SHORT SOL — resistance-fade
Entry zone:104.3–104.9 (limit; only fills on a bounce back up into the zone — do not short 102.7 into the lows)
Why: SOL 4H is down (104.9→102.7 closes, lower highs) and pinned at the lows (live 102.72). The trigger is a relief bounce into 104.3–104.9 — broken 4H support now resistance — that fails and rolls back toward the 102 shelf. Funding −0.001% (not crowded), so no squeeze fuel against the short.
Invalidation: a 1H close back above 106.0 reclaims the broken level and flips the near-term structure up — kill it.
bias: 4H structure · manage on 1H · 15m for entry timing only